Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo will secure a first round win in the 2020 presidential election, political analyst Francis Kobena Tandoh said here Monday.
According to him trend analysis carried out into the country’s seven presidential elections from 1992 to 2016 coupled with the numerous programmes and policy interventions pursued by the Akufo-Addo led government will insure to the benefit of the incumbent.
He predicted the sitting president will secure not less than 51% of total valid votes cast in the December 7 polls saying Akufo-Addo’s electoral fortunes have been improving election after election since 2012 while former President John Mahama’s votes has been decreasing since the same period.
“Looking at the trend, it is likely that the current president will have a reduction in votes in this year’s presidential election but the question that many political analysts are asking is by what percentage?
It must be emphasized that while Akufo-Addo’s percentage votes increased from 47.74 in 2012 to 53.72 in 2016, same cannot be said about Mahama. His percentage votes has been decreasing; 50.70 in 2012 to 44.53 in 2016. It is thus more likely for Akufo-Addo to be retained per the statistics than Mahama recapturing political power,” Mr. Tandoh said.
The political analyst explained that Akufo-Addo will win the four swing regions; Western, Central, Greater Accra and Brong Ahafo (Bono East, Bono and Ahafo) that determines who wins presidential elections in the country as well as in the Ashanti and Eastern regions.
He further indicated that the fortunes of the NPP is likely to improve in the newly created regions especially the North East region, where Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia has been campaigning extensively.
The analyst said, “As for the three Bono regions, Akufo will win alongside North East while in the Western North, Savannah and Oti regions, there will be fierce contest between the NPP and the NDC. The NDC as usual will win the Volta, Northern, Upper East and West regions.”
Among the numerous factors he identified as contributing to the success of the incumbent is the implementation of key government programmes including the flagship free Senior High School (SHS) policy, 1 constituency 1 ambulance, planting for food and jobs, 1 district 1 factory initiative among the restoration of nursing and teacher training allowance, NABCO and the resolution of the Dagbon chieftaincy dispute.
Others are the creation of the six new regions, Akufo-Addo’s management of COVID-19, the demise of Rawlings and matters arising as well as impact of most African presidents who went for election this year being retained.
A total of 17,029,981 registered voters according to the Electoral Commission are expected to vote on December 7 to elect a president and 275 Members of Parliament.
Analyst have argued the presidential election is a straight contest between incumbent President Akufo-Addo and former President Mahama.
The duo contested the 2012 presidential election in which Mahama defeated Akufo-Addo while in the 2016, the latter defeated the former, then incumbent with over 1 million votes.